Rocket (RKT)-powered brokerage Redfin published a housing-cost analysis exploring when mortgage payments could return to historical income levels. Redfin estimates a hypothetical national return to August 2018 affordability levels by November 2031 with 6% mortgage rates and 2.1% annual home-price growth. With flat prices and 7.5% rates, the modeled date is April 2032; with flat prices and 6% rates, it is February 2029.“Normal” means restoring the mortgage-payment-to-income ratio to its August 2018 level, nationally 30%, rather than making every metro affordable. At 7.5% rates, current local price trends and projected income growth imply October 2027 for San Jose, February 2028 for Austin and April 2028 for Oakland. About half the analyzed metros could take at least a decade with rates between 6% and 8% and current price growth continuing. These scenarios are hypothetical, not predictions.
Leo's notes: A new Redfin analysis suggests U.S. housing costs could return to 2018 affordability levels within five years under favorable mortgage-rate and price-growth scenarios. However, Milwaukee is among the markets where affordability could take a decade or longer to recover if current trends persist. Waiting for the housing market to correct itself is not a workforce housing strategy. Communities need to accelerate production of smaller homes, duplexes and other attainable ownership options while reducing unnecessary development costs. Affordability should improve because we build housing that matches local incomes—not simply because we wait for wages and interest rates to catch up.
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- Volume: 26 - WEEK: 42 Date: 10/12/2026 4:06:04 PM -